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Kalshi, Polymarket, and prediction market basics — how they work, how to hedge, and what operators should know.
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Common questions
A prediction market lets you trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes ("Will X happen?"). Prices reflect crowd probability estimates. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated in the US.
Find mispriced probabilities — events where the market price diverges from your assessed probability. Research edge, not just luck.
Kalshi is federally regulated by the CFTC and fully legal. Polymarket is technically offshore but accessible to US users. Always check current regulations.
Calculators and checklists — figure things out before spending money.
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