Private Research · Not Investment Advice
📈 SideGuy Betting Lab
Structured prediction market trading using Kalshi event contracts + DFS insurance hedges. Log, analyze, and refine a data-driven edge over time.
Core Strategy
- Primary: Kalshi event contract — weighted position on outcome with positive expected value
- Insurance: DFS flex entry as cheap hedge against correlated outcome
- Trigger: In-game or live signal (pace, foul trouble, score gap, rotation) confirms or kills the hedge
- Exit rule: Defined before entry; no chasing
Triggers Tested
🏃 Pace spike
🚫 Foul trouble
🔄 Rotation surprise
📊 Score gap
🌡️ Line movement
📰 News drop
Log File
All bets tracked in CSV. Run the analysis script for live summary:
betting-lab/bet-log.csv python3 betting-lab/hedge-summary.py
Columns: date · market · position · platform · size · price · trigger · hedge · hedge_size · result · notes
