NOAA has an El Niño Advisory in effect. As of its September 10, 2026 update, there's a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter, and a 75% chance that October to December reaches a strength not seen in records back to 1950. NOAA's next update is due Thursday, October 8.
NOAA's own caveat: a stronger event makes the usual El Niño impacts more likely, not guaranteed.
What the County is bracing for
The County of San Diego proclaimed a local emergency on September 30, lining up with the Governor's September 21 statewide proclamation, so crews can respond faster. The impacts it lists: heavy rain, urban flooding, mudslides, coastal erosion, strain on storm drains, road closures and power outages.
On the coast, Del Mar is using the emergency declarations to push for bigger dredging of the San Dieguito Lagoon mouth, which helps the lagoon carry storm water out and lowers flood risk for the low-lying neighborhoods (City of Del Mar news).
Get ready before the first storm
- Sign up for alerts on the County's El Niño hub (phone, text and email).
- Know your risk: our home hazard check reads FEMA's flood map, the tsunami zone and more for your address.
- Flood insurance takes time: FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program policies typically have a 30-day waiting period, so buying after the forecast turns is usually too late. FloodSmart.
- Sandbags: free at County and CAL FIRE sites: nearest ones and this week's rain.
- The roof and gutters: get a soft spot fixed now; licensed roofers near you and what to check before you sign.
- Power: plan for outages; if someone at home depends on medical equipment, see SDG&E Medical Baseline.
- Know who to call: your water district's after-hours line and North County alerts today.
- After a big rain, the County advises staying out of the ocean for 72 hours once 0.2 inch or more has fallen; stay off and away from the bluffs.
Hands before the storm
Hauling sandbags, moving boxes up off the garage floor, a run for supplies: Text PJ (Family Assist, Solana Beach to Encinitas). More real people: just need a human.
Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Sept 10, 2026) · County of San Diego, emergency proclamation (Sept 30, 2026) and El Niño 2026 Information Hub · City of Del Mar · FEMA FloodSmart. Checked October 5, 2026.
Need a human?
This page is built every morning from public data by SideGuy, run by PJ, a local in Solana Beach. If something looks off, or you want a hand with your plans, text PJ at 858-461-8054. A real person answers.
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Questions people ask
Is El Niño coming to San Diego in 2026?
NOAA has an El Niño Advisory in effect: as of September 10, 2026 there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event this fall and winter, and a 75% chance October to December reaches historic strength. Impacts are more likely, not guaranteed.
Did San Diego County declare an emergency for El Niño?
Yes. The County proclaimed a local emergency on September 30, 2026, aligned with the Governor's September 21 statewide proclamation, and launched an El Niño 2026 Information Hub on AlertSanDiego.org.
Should I buy flood insurance before El Niño?
If you want it, buy early: FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program policies typically have a 30-day waiting period before coverage starts.
Where can I get free sandbags in North County?
County and CAL FIRE sandbag sites across the region; our free sandbags page lists the nearest ones with this week's rain chances.
Know someone who needs this?
Something changed here? Text PJ and we'll update this page.
More free local tools: the North County toolkit.