Short answer: not soon, by the money. Kalshi prices the first Roadster deliveries starting before 2028 at about 12%, and before 2027 at about 1%. Polymarket gives a delivery to a member of the public by the end of 2027 about 10%, and by the end of 2026 about 2%.
| Question | Market | Bid to ask | Reads as |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery starts before 2027 | Kalshi | 0% to 2% | about 1% |
| Delivery starts before Jul 2027 | Kalshi | 1% to 6% | about 4% |
| Delivery starts before 2028 | Kalshi | 9% to 15% | about 12% |
| Delivered to the public by end of 2026 | Polymarket | 1% to 4% | about 2% |
| Delivered to the public by end of 2027 | Polymarket | 7% to 12% | about 10% |
The two venues ask slightly different questions: Kalshi's markets settle on deliveries beginning; Polymarket's need a delivery to a qualifying member of the public (not Tesla or SpaceX employees). From each venue's public market data, 4:24AM Oct 21, rebuilt daily. Thin markets: a few hundred dollars can move them. Market prices, not advice and not a date from Tesla.
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How much is the Tesla Roadster?
- $50,000 to reserve one. PJ saw $50,000 and $250,000 on Tesla's October 15 livestream, and the reports match: a $50,000 deposit to reserve (Business Insider).
- $250,000 to reserve the version with the SpaceX thrusters (Engadget).
- The car itself: at least $200,000, per The New York Times.
- When: Musk put production in 2028 (Jalopnik, NewsNation, Investing.com). That matches the money: Kalshi prices deliveries starting before 2028 at about 12%.
Reported October 15, 2026, the night of the reveal. We don't read Tesla's own site; check its reservation page for the current terms before you put money down.
The October 15 flight
Tesla's livestream on October 15 showed the Roadster lifting off and pitching nose-up in the air; PJ watched it live, and the on-screen readout hit 53.4 feet of altitude. Polymarket's "Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?" market settled YES after about $855,521 traded. Its "0-60 under one second" market closed at 100% YES.
A flight on a livestream and a car in your driveway are different milestones: the delivery markets above are the second one.
Why the markets are skeptical
The new Roadster was first unveiled on November 16, 2017, the date Polymarket's rules point to. Nearly nine years later, both venues price a delivery this year as a long shot (1% to 2%), and even one by the end of 2027 as unlikely (12% to 10%).
The odds over time
| Question | First read | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Delivery starts before 2027 (Kalshi) | 2% (10-15) | 1% |
| Delivery starts before Jul 2027 (Kalshi) | 4% (10-15) | 4% |
| Delivery starts before 2028 (Kalshi) | 10% (10-15) | 12% |
| Delivered to the public by end of 2026 (Polymarket) | 5% (10-15) | 2% |
| Delivered to the public by end of 2027 (Polymarket) | 22% (10-15) | 10% |
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Questions people ask
How much is the Tesla Roadster?
Reported on reveal night, October 15, 2026: $50,000 to reserve one, $250,000 to reserve the version with SpaceX thrusters (Engadget), and at least $200,000 for the car (The New York Times). Check Tesla's reservation page before paying.
When will the Tesla Roadster come out?
By the prediction markets, not soon: Kalshi prices deliveries starting before 2028 at about 12%, and Polymarket prices a delivery to the public by the end of 2027 at about 10%. These are market prices, not a date from Tesla.
Can the Tesla Roadster fly?
Tesla's October 15 livestream showed it lifting off and pitching nose-up, with the on-screen readout at 53.4 feet of altitude. Polymarket's market on whether it would fly for a second or more settled YES.
What are the odds the Tesla Roadster is delivered in 2026?
About 1% on Kalshi (deliveries beginning before 2027) and about 2% on Polymarket (a delivery to a member of the public by December 31, 2026).
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket Roadster markets?
Kalshi's settle when deliveries begin. Polymarket's need a delivery to a qualifying member of the public, not employees or insiders, so it is the stricter question.
When was the new Tesla Roadster first unveiled?
November 16, 2017, per the rules of Polymarket's Roadster delivery market.
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